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“Over the last few decades, investors’ timeframes have shrunk. They’ve become obsessed with quarterly returns. In fact, technology now enables them to become distracted by returns on a daily basis, and even minute-by-minute. Thus one way to gain an advantage is by ignoring the ‘noise’ created by the manic swings of others and focussing on the things that matter in the long term.”

- Howard Marks

Volatility Beneath the Surface: The Current State of the Market

The stock market, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500, have seen notable pullbacks over the past couple of weeks.

Main drivers include:

  • AI disruption fears are hammering software and now financial stocks. New tools are threatening traditional software and broker businesses, sparking sell-offs in names like Microsoft and Oracle.

  • Big Tech's massive AI capex including hundreds of billions of projected spending from Amazon, Microsoft, and various other tech names, raising profitability concerns during cautious earnings outlooks.

  • Weaker economic data consisting of flatter retail sales (missing estimates), a cooling labor market (higher job cuts), and mixed consumer spending.

This is more of a sector rotation and correction than a full crash.

Keep reading below for more information.

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