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Odds of a Fed Rate Hike By Year-End Have Surpassed 50% for the First Time 🔼
Volatility Is Back: How to Protect (and Position) Your Portfolio Right Now 📊
What's Actually Happening In The Market 📉
3 Defensive Moves You Can Make Right Now ✅
The Long-Term Investor's Mindset 🧠
“The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table.”
The Dow Jones fell nearly 800 points to 45,167, officially entering correction territory.
The S&P 500 dropped 1.67% to a 7-month low of 6,368, and the Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 20,948.
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is down ~7%, the Dow ~7%, and the Nasdaq nearly 10%.
The U.S.-Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude oil to ~$115.
Odds of a Fed rate hike by year-end have surpassed 50% for the first time, marking a sharp reversal from earlier cut expectations.
Markets remain volatile and highly sensitive to any ceasefire developments in the Middle East.
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Volatility Is Back: How to Protect (and Position) Your Portfolio Right Now
Markets have turned into a white-knuckle ride.
Just this past week, stocks soared on news of a potential peace deal, only for that rally to disappear hours later when Iran rejected it.
Since then, oil prices are surging once again and all 3 major indexes keep falling.
If your portfolio feels like its been tossed around by headlines, it’s because that’s exactly what’s happening.
But here's what we do know: volatility is not the same as permanent loss.
Knowing the difference, and acting accordingly, is what separates investors who come out ahead from those who panic at the wrong time.
What's Actually Happening In The Market
As I write this, the S&P 500 is down ~6% from its all-time high, as investors continue to reassess market risk during a period of geopolitical tension.
The VIX (Wall Street’s fear gauge) has averaged ~24.3 in March, compared to just 16.1 in February, reflecting the market’s increasing uncertainty.
Additionally, the S&P 500 has moved more than 1% upwards and downwards in 14 of the 18 trading days this month alone (so far), which represents a pace of volatility we have not seen since the 2022 Federal Reserve rate hikes.
The worst part? It’s not hitting every sector equally. As you can see in the chart below, there's a massive rotation underway.
Energy is soaring while financials and consumer discretionary are getting crushed YTD.
3 Defensive Moves You Can Make Right Now
Rotate into Energy and Commodities
This one is hard to ignore.
The energy sector is up 35%+ YTD, driven by Brent crude above $110 a barrel and the geopolitical risk premium baked into oil markets.
Companies like Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▼ 1.06% ) and Chevron $CVX ( ▼ 1.81% ) have historically acted as natural inflation hedges.
When oil goes up, they go up.
Gold is also worth a look.
Materials are up almost 9% YTD, lifted by gold miners as gold prices have hit record highs above $4,000 per ounce.
Add Dividend-Paying Defensive Stocks
When the markets get choppy, income starts to matter that much more.
Dividend stocks in utilities, health care and consumer staples typically hold their value better during market downturns because they have more predictable revenue streams and are less impacted by what is going on in the Middle East.
Think companies like Johnson & Johnson $JNJ ( ▲ 0.8% ), Procter & Gamble $PG ( ▼ 0.19% ) or a utility ETF like $XLU ( ▼ 0.07% ).
Equities like these pay you while you wait for the storm to pass, and sometimes that’s all you need to make it on the other side alive.
Don't Abandon Defensive Stocks
Think $LMT ( ▲ 0.97% ) and $NOC ( ▲ 1.59% ).
These defense heavy industrial companies are both up 26% and 18% YTD respectively as I write this. Geopolitical conflict tends to sustain defense spending for years, not just weeks.
This isn’t just a trade in and out play either, it could be a theme for many years to come.
Position yourself accordingly.
The Long-Term Investor's Mindset
Here's the stat I want you to hold onto:
Missing just the 10 best market days can cut your total long-term returns by roughly 56% and missing the top 30 best market days can reduce them by as much as 84%.
This data is from 1996-2025 and will hold true going forward.
Those “best days” almost always happen during periods of extreme volatility.
In other words, when the news is the worst and the temptation to sell is the highest.
Pullbacks are not anomalies. They're the price of admission.
According to a bottom-up consensus forecast compiled by aggregating the median price targets of S&P 500 constituent stocks, the index is expected to reach 8,338 points by March 2027, implying a nearly 27% upside from current levels.
That doesn't mean the path there will be smooth. But it will likely be worth your time (and money).
Want to Know Exactly What I'm Doing With My Portfolio?
Navigating a market like this takes more than general advice. It takes real-time conviction, specific stock picks, and someone in your corner.
That's exactly what The Profit Academy is built for.
Members get:
✅ Premium stock picks: hand-selected opportunities in the sectors moving right now, including energy, defense, and dividend plays.
✅ An inside look at my personal portfolio: no secrets, no fluff. You see what I'm holding, what I'm trimming, and why.
✅ 1-on-1 portfolio help: bring your own holdings and get direct feedback tailored to your situation.
✅ Earnings summaries: every major report, broken down in plain language so you know what it actually means.
Moments like this, where the market is rotating violently and most investors are flying blind, are exactly when the membership pays for itself.
If you've been on the fence, now is the time.
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