In partnership with
Welcome to The Profit Zone 👋
Where thousands of millionaires, CEO’s and high-performing entrepreneurs read the #1 financial newsletter on the web.
Navigating Iran-Israel-US Tensions: Smart Moves to Profit While Others Panic 😯
Which Stocks Win & Which Stocks Struggle 📈 📉
What History Tells Us 📕
Beyond Stocks: Where Is The Money Moving? 🔄
What Could Make This Situation Worse 😨
“Investors should own a concentrated portfolio of high-quality businesses that can deliver strong organic growth even if the economy falters.”
Market Summary: Stocks Plunge Amid Oil Surge and Economic Concerns
Stocks experienced significant declines on Friday, driven by escalating tensions in the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which pushed oil prices higher, combined with a surprise U.S. job loss in February that raised stagflation fears.
Oil Prices Spike
Brent crude surged 8.5% to $92.69 per barrel.
U.S. crude jumped 12.2% to $90.90, crossing $90 for the first time since 2023.
U.S. Market Performance
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.95% to ~47,501 marking the worst weekly drop since early April 2025.
S&P 500: Down 1.33% to 6,740 marking the worst week since mid-October 2025.
Nasdaq Composite: Down 1.59% to ~22,387.
Russell 2000: Sharpest weekly fall since early August 2025.
The weak February jobs report increased hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts but strengthened worries about further economic weakness.
Bond Yields and Currency
U.S. 2-year yield: Down 4 basis points, reflecting rate cut expectations.
Canadian 2-year yield: Up 4 basis points during oil-driven inflows.
Canadian dollar: Strengthened over 0.5 cents to ~73.70 US cents, outperforming peers due to surging crude prices.
The headlines that actually moves markets
Tired of missing the trades that actually move markets?
Every weekday, you’ll get a 5-minute Elite Trade Club newsletter covering the top stories, market-moving headlines, and the hottest stocks — delivered before the opening bell.
Whether you’re a casual trader or a serious investor, it’s everything you need to know before making your next move.
Join 200K+ traders who read our 5-minute premarket report to see which stocks are setting up for the day, what news is breaking, and where the smart money’s moving.
By joining, you’ll receive Elite Trade Club emails and select partner insights. See Privacy Policy.
War in the Middle East: Your Portfolio's Secret Weapon or Total Wipeout?
What's Actually Going On
US–Israel military strikes on Iran have escalated into what could be a prolonged conflict.
Iran has retaliated against Gulf Oil infrastructure and US bases, sending shockwaves through global markets. Oil has surged 13% in just days, gold is climbing, and stock markets remain unsteady.
The key risk the world is watching: Iran's ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Which is the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply flows.
If the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked, the consequences for energy prices and global growth could be severe.
"If Iran blocks Gulf flows, global growth could fall to 1.2% in 2026, with US inflation climbing back to 3.5%."
In short: investors have started fleeing to “safe havens”. This includes Gold, US Treasuries and the Dollar, while risker assets continue to sell off.
But here’s the kicker: we’ve seen this before.
What History Tells Us
Geopolitical crises can feel catastrophic in the moment, but markets have a consistent track record of recovering.
In fact, they have recovered 100% of the time, and almost always reward investors who can “keep their heads on straight”.
1990 Gulf War: Oil spiked to $40/barrel (equivalent to over $90 today). Defense stocks like Raytheon surged ~50% in months. Once the dust settled, markets rebounded sharply.
2022 Russia–Ukraine Invasion: Lockheed Martin shares jumped 25% almost immediately, driven by surging NATO defence spending across Europe.
2019 Saudi Drone Strikes: Iranian-backed attacks on Saudi oil facilities briefly spiked crude oil by 15%, but the disruption was temporary.
The pattern remains consistent:
Initial shock ➡ investors cycle to “save havens” ➡ market recovery.
That doesn’t mean ignoring the risk, but it does mean that panic-selling in a situation like this is almost never the right call.
Who Wins & Who Struggles
Likely Beneficiaries
Ticker | Company |
|---|---|
LMT | Lockheed Martin |
NOC | Northrop Grumman |
RTX | RTX Corp (Raytheon) |
PLTR | Palantir (AI/Intel) |
XOM | ExxonMobil |
CVX | Chevron |
NEM | Newmont (Gold) |
Under Pressure
Sector/Category | Reason |
|---|---|
Autos | Higher energy costs |
Retail | Reduced consumer spend |
EV Stocks | Growth rotation out |
Industrials | Cost pressure |
EM Currencies | Trade disruption risk |
Comm. Real Estate | Oil-dependent regions |
The thesis for defense stocks is strong. Pentagon spending was already rising prior to this conflict and this situation only accelerates it.
During the Iraq War, Lockheed Martin’s stock tripled between 2003 and 2007 as orders continued to pour in. Morningstar states that there could be 20-30% gains in the defence sector if the crisis continues more than a few weeks.
Real Quick…
The market's wild right now, geopolitical tensions, oil spikes, and surprise job losses.
Staying ahead means more than just reading weekly updates. That's why I've launched my exclusive Skool community, the inner circle for serious investors like you.
Inside, you'll get instant access to:
My Premium Stock Picks with detailed reasoning and entry/exit targets
Concise earnings summaries so you never miss key insights
Real-time market updates, my live buys and sells, and curated watchlists
Direct Q&A with me, plus discussions with a community of sharp, like-minded dividend-focused investors
This is where the real edge happens: timely alerts, shared ideas, accountability, and faster learning from collective wins (and mistakes) in one clean, distraction-free space.
Join now and level up your portfolio with the tools and transparency that turn good investors into consistent outperformers.
Choosing to stay on the outside?
You'll keep reacting to headlines instead of leading the moves, missing the real-time edge that separates average returns from dominant ones.
Spots are limited, so don't get left watching from the sidelines.
Beyond Stocks: Where Is The Money Moving?
Gold/Silver: A classic “safe haven” play. Gold rose 15% during the Gulf War and is already up 2% post Iranian strikes (BULLISH).
US Treasuries: Yields are likely to fall 5-10 basis points as investors move to bonds (BULLISH).
Oil/Energy: Brent crude could push above $100 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed off. High upside here but also high risk (VOLATILE).
Natural Gas: Could spike if Gulf exports halt and supply chains are disrupted (VOLATILE).
Bitcoin: Rallied ~20% early during the Ukraine crisis as “digital gold” but continues to be highly volatile. Treat this as a speculative asset only (SPECULATIVE).
What To Actually Do
This isn’t the end of the world, it just feels like it is. Especially for investors.
History tells us that conflicts in the middle-east consistently shows limited long-term market impact when the crises stays contained. The distraction of war creates both fear and, for the patient investor, opportunity.
Here is a framework for navigating the coming weeks:
Avoid panic selling. The decision to exit positions can secure permanent losses. Historical data shows that "buying the dip" pays off, but you may want to wait until the situation stabilizes.
Reduce risk selectively, not completely. Cut back on holdings in cyclical stocks and high-growth tech vulnerable to rising energy costs and the markets aversion to risk.
Boost allocations to defense, energy, and gold. Aim for 10–15% of your portfolio in sectors that thrive during crises, as they tend to excel in prolonged geopolitical tensions.
Maintain your investment strategy. Consistent contributions during turbulent times help lower your average cost.
Protect against inflation. With oil prices possibly ranging from $80–100, prioritize assets like commodities and perhaps real estate to buffer against rising costs.
Monitor the Strait of Hormuz closely. This chokepoint is the critical factor and a blockade would drastically alter market dynamics for the time being.
Diversify across regions. If the conflict stays localized, assets in East Asia and Europe may perform better than others.
What Could Make This Worse
The base case is a contained conflict that markets end up just shrugging off. But there are scenarios that could change everything.
Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Shutting down this critical chokepoint could slash 20% of the world's oil supply, leading to massive price spikes, fueling inflation, and pressuring the Fed into policy moves that hammer stocks across the board.
Iran's Internal Power Struggles: Political turmoil within Iran might drag out lost market confidence far past any cease fire, maintaining high risk premiums and increased volatility for months to follow.
Wider Regional Conflict: Deeper involvement from Gulf nations could amplify this economic chaos.
It’s important to assess your risk appetite.
Day traders might be able to capitalize on the swings, but buy-and-hold investors should stick to prioritizing strong fundamentals, maintaining diversification, and avoiding speculative trades to weather the storm.
|
Did you enjoy this newsletter?
Until next week,
The Profit Zone
